The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, poses a serious threat to the regional natural gas market and could have knock-on effects on Europe’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply as winter approaches. Although Israel has surplus gas production, which currently supports Egypt and Jordan’s growing demand, a continued or escalated conflict would have wide-ranging implications, according to Rystad Energy analysis.

The fate of the three largest Israeli gas development projects – Tamar, Leviathan and Karish – will affect the regional market greatly. A regional geopolitical reshuffle could hold up normalization progress, risk upstream investments and spoil export goals at a time when exploration and discovery of low-cost resources have increased.

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